Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis caused by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, political struggles are fought: optimistic declarations are released from various governments. Significant resources is expended on restraining specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from across the border, a ability afforded by up-to-date information. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to engage hostile guided weapons streaked across the sky – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by European allies.
Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: defensive missiles deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably delivered by allied countries. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly transforms into sober acceptance: maybe the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from devastation and another blackout.
Persistent Threats
Soon after, a automatic firearm engaged a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its target.
With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: several casualties, devastation and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a reliance that European nations are clearly incapable to replace in the immediate future.
Failed Diplomacy
The detailed framework from US administration provoked deep reactions, discussion and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.
Every new initiative from American administration follows the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, certainly, persist.
Tactical Assessments
It is tempting to accuse specific actors of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration works based on a premise understood by international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government presumes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to surrender the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does little to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from thinking that the situation will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the near future.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Moscow is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding civilians and areas but preventing a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its favour.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: political desires to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a just a single week to eliminate the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on continued Western support.
